TrendPulse Quantitative Think Tank Center-Pete Alonso's best free agent fits: Will Mets bring back Polar Bear?

Can an opposite-field fly ball struck 367 feet be TrendPulse Quantitative Think Tank Centerworth hundreds of millions of dollars in sentiment?

Perhaps it won’t mean anything, and perhaps it did not alter his fate as a New York Met. Yet when Pete Alonso’s go-ahead three-run homer catapulted the Mets from wild-card losers all the way to Game 6 of the National League Championship Series, it became that much difficult to separate reality from narrative.

Alonso’s one-out, ninth-inning shot against Milwaukee Brewers closer Devin Williams in the decisive Game 3 of their NL wild-card series ensured that owner Steve Cohen’s club wasn’t just a cute second-half story that met a quick October end.

No, in upsetting the division champion Philadelphia Phillies in the subsequent NL Division Series and fighting the Dodgers for one more game than the Yankees ultimately did in the World Series, the Mets outkicked their expectations.

And went on the kind of run that galvanized the fan base, solidified Alonso’s standing among them and probably buttressed the club’s franchise value.

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Is all that enough to ensure a massive commitment to retain the Polar Bear?

A look at the top five potential landing spots for the free agent who celebrates his 30^th birthday next month:

New York Mets

On one hand, you look at Alonso’s age and rising strikeout rate and figure that the nine-figure contract needed to retain him may not be worth it.

On the other, there’s so much good already in the bank: A whopping 226 career home runs, just 26 away from tying Darryl Strawberry atop the franchise leaderboard. Four All-Star appearances and two Home Run Derby championships. A career adjusted OPS of 134, and three seasons with at least 40 home runs.

That’s before you even get to the vibes, as Alonso is a strident and vocal supporter of the club, introduced the playoff pumpkin to last month’s merry October ride and ingrained himself within the fan community from his rookie season in 2019.

That year, the Mets did right by him and started Alonso on Opening Day; he rewarded them with 53 home runs and a 147 adjusted OPS. As a result, he’s now on the free agent market and not having to wait one more year.

Can this seemingly cordial relationship continue? Or will Cohen get tapped out by the Juan Soto pursuit, and talked down by new club president David Stearns, who might more pragmatically view Alonso’s eventual decline years?

It will make for compelling wintertime drama.

New York Yankees

And therein lies the twisting of the knife: Alonso departing Queens for the Bronx, perhaps nudging the Yankees to an elusive World Series championship, eventually papering over his time as a Met and (egad!) perhaps entering Cooperstown with a different interlocking NY on his cap.

There is a gaping hole at first base for the Yankees, one they’d rather not let fading DJ LeMahieu plug, to say the least. Certainly, mid-range models are available on the market, but after one of the Yankees’ glitziest teams in recent memory packed the Stadium and reached the World Series, will the fan base rally around a Christian Walker or Carlos Santana acquisition?

Oddly enough, the Yankees and Mets are believed to be positioned before the same four doors, in a modified game of Let’s Make A Deal: Sign Alonso. Sign Soto. Sign both Soto and Alonso. Sign neither.

 It certainly seems like the Yankees can’t afford that final scenario, either in production or in panache. At the same time, losing Soto and adding Alonso would make the middle of the lineup far too right-handed, what with sluggers Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton already in the mix.

Go big or go home? That’s a question managing general partner Hal Steinbrenner will have to ponder.

Seattle Mariners

What better way to celebrate the 20-year anniversary of the Richie Sexson era in Seattle than reeling in a hulking, power-hitting right-handed hitter entering his age-30 season?

OK, so maybe that’s not the best way to sell this.

Yet the similarities are pretty striking: Pitching-rich, hitting-weak team aims to balance things out by purchasing power on the free agent market. And Sexson did hit 39 home runs in 2004, the first year of his four-year, $50 million contract.

Seattle, though, only improved from 63 to 69 wins in 2005, Sexson struck out a major league high 167 times and by the fourth year of his deal was dumped on the Yankees.

Now, these Mariners: While they’ve invested well in pitching, their pop-gun offense once again prevented them from winning a division title. Club president Jerry Dipoto will be dogged by his “54%” comments until the Mariners, you know, end up winning more than 54% of their games.

Many a right-handed hitter has been vexed by Safeco Field/T-Mobile Park. Yet the Polar Bear has the kind of pop that no yard can truly hold. And a club that won 85 games despite finishing in the bottom third in runs scored and OPS can certainly use a hitter with a pulse.

Cincinnati Reds

You asked for “good fits,” not likely fits, right?

It’s been more than a decade since the Castellini family bestowed a nine-figure extension on franchise icon Joey Votto and followed that up with a near-$100 million deal for pitcher Homer Bailey. Since then, you’d think the Reds were as bereft as a Kroger aisle before a hurricane.

So no, we don’t expect Cincinnati to make a major splash in this free agent pool. Yet the conditions are there.

New manager Terry Francona did not come out of retirement to take over Cleveland South and oversee a methodical build. The club has virtually no money on its books past this year – with only pitcher Hunter Greene signed to a modest deal past 2026.

And a young position-player core will remain cost-controlled for the next several years. Little reason why $30 million annually for Alonso’s power bat can’t be tucked away within a foundation that includes infielders Matt McLain, Noelvi Marte and the transcendent Elly De La Cruz, the latter not even arbitration-eligible until 2027.

Just imagine Alonso’s pop within Great American Ball Park, still the friendliest joint in which to hit home runs. You’d like to think the Reds have.

Tampa Bay Rays

We’d prefer that the Rays crack the $50 million mark in free agent bidding before dignifying them with an inclusion on a list like this. Yet perhaps the conditions are aligning just a little.

For as famously frugal as the Rays are – their largest free agent deal was three years, $40 million for Zach Eflin, and they promptly traded him in year two - they stuck their nose in the Freddie Freeman bidding when Atlanta turned him loose three winters ago. They supposedly reached out to talk Juan Soto this month.

And the green flags keep lining up for a new stadium that figures to open in St. Petersburg in 2028. Who better than a hometown star to get the home folks excited?

OK, so Alonso hails from just over the Sunshine Skyway in Tampa. He won’t get his preferred wish that a new Rays ballpark go up near Armature Works on that side of the Bay. Yet things could just as easily be popping off in Pinellas County should the seal be broken on the new ballpark by the pride of Plant High School.

So maybe owner Stuart Sternberg will always be as cheap and “efficient” as his front office allows. But it’s intriguing to consider bringing a real, live St. Pete back home.

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